Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $101,650$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,037.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(100,037.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,418$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(755 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,315.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,315.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,645$ on 2020-05-06

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $131,744$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133,020.3}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 28.5)}}\) (asimptote \(133,020.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,584$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(332 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,823.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,823.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,958$ on 2020-05-06

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,310$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,092.2}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(16,092.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $239$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(32.4 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238.1}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 24.5)}}\) (asimptote \(238.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,434$ on 2020-05-06

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,738$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,292.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 63.3)}}\) (asimptote \(19,292.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $157$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(3.26 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{368.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 51.0)}}\) (asimptote \(368.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,222$ on 2020-05-06

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $883$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(142 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(865.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(5.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 11.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $572$ on 2020-05-06

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,289$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(32.4 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,308.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 91.6)}}\) (asimptote \(35,308.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.69 \times 10^{0.044t}\) (doubling rate \(6.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.8}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 26.9)}}\) (asimptote \(56.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,028$ on 2020-05-06

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,004$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,172.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,172.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $658$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(61.6 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{678.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(678.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,840$ on 2020-05-06

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,938$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(454 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,857.8}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(50,857.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $209$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(24.6 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{255.6}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(255.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,946$ on 2020-05-06

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Thailand recovered 88%
Korea, South recovered 85%
Uzbekistan recovered 53%
Israel recovered 45%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 41%
Turkey recovered 38%
Malaysia recovered 38%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,970$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(97.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,363.8}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,363.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,266.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 26.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,266.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $404$ on 2020-05-06

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,989$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(844 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,909.3}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 19.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,909.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(21.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 10.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $173$ on 2020-05-06

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,810$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(4.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,344.1}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,344.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $256$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(53.4 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(259.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,135$ on 2020-05-06

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,233$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(270 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,186.4}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 25.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,186.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(3.76 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12.5}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 11.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $646$ on 2020-05-06