Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $101,650$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,037.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(100,037.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,418$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(755 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,315.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,315.3\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,645$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $131,744$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133,020.3}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 28.5)}}\) (asimptote \(133,020.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,584$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(332 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,823.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,823.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,958$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,310$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,092.2}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(16,092.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $239$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(32.4 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238.1}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 24.5)}}\) (asimptote \(238.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,434$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,738$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,292.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 63.3)}}\) (asimptote \(19,292.0\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $157$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.26 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{368.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 51.0)}}\) (asimptote \(368.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,222$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $883$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(142 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(865.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(5.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 11.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14.8\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $572$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,289$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(32.4 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,308.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 91.6)}}\) (asimptote \(35,308.8\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $42$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.69 \times 10^{0.044t}\) (doubling rate \(6.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.8}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 26.9)}}\) (asimptote \(56.8\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,028$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,004$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,172.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,172.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $658$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(61.6 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{678.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(678.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,840$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,938$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(454 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,857.8}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(50,857.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $209$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(24.6 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{255.6}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(255.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,946$ on 2020-05-06